Will Celtic Win The League — Wanna Bet?

Last week, after 2 games played I caught up with my yearly assessment of whether Celtic would win the league or not.

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2019/08/23/will-celtic-win-the-league/

My opinion at that time was that it is ours to lose, based on the signings we had made, current performance and backed that up with the odds available at the various bookmakers.

Has that opinion changed after 4 games played including the weekends game against our closest rivals Rangers and the transfer window closing last night?

Undoubtedly, Celtic have spent significant sums and strengthened, the 2 new players that I had question marks over namely Julien and Bolingoli played well at the weekend removing any serious doubts on their abilities over the season, although Bolingoli looks better going forward than in defence. The other new replacement Taylor signed just before the window closed last night will more than likely make this position his own pushing Bolingoli forward.

The new signing and debutante in the Glasgow Derby, Hatem Abd Elhamed, looks like a quality player at either right back or centre-back, fast, strong and aggressive.

Then there was the return of Fraser Forster in goal who had very little to do as the back 4 in front of him and Brown in centre midfield swept up the Rangers attack before it became a credible threat.

Additionally , the other new signings of note include Mohamed Elyounoussi, who looks like a good addition of an attacking winger.

Too many to name really, but the team played well despite being written ff in some quarters of the media and Edouard let the line with strength and guile as usual.

As the transfer window slammed shut, Rangers finalized a deal to bring back Ryan Kent who was a decent player for them last season, good going forward, scored a handful of goals, but is most celebrated by the rangers support for striking Celtics captain Scott Brown .. a fee of £7m for a player who hasn’t even had a first team game with his parent club?

Serious, are you mad, or just feeding the bears a squirrel to give them hope and distract them with the fact that Celtic are going to win this league comfortably now.

Yes it’s only 4 games in, but Celtic have set down a marker both on and off the field.

The league is a marathon and not a sprint, things happen over the season, players get injured or suspended, but Celtic have superior quality and strength in depth and I’m confident that we will win this league.

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To back that opinion up, have a look at the bookmakers sites, pre-season Celtic had a win ratio of 5 times more likely to win the league than Rangers, this dropped to 3.5 prior to the Glasgow Derby game.

After Sundays win with 4 games played,  it’s is now 7.5 times more likely that Celtic will win the league.

A £100 bet on Celtic returns £33.33 where as the same bet on Rangers returns £250.

Games Played	Celtc Odds	£100 Return	Rangers Odds	£100 Return	Win Ratio
0	4/9	£44.44	9/4	£225.00	5.06
2	11/20	£55.00	21/10	£210.00	3.82
3	4/7	£57.14	2/1	£200.00	3.50
4	1/3	£33.33	5/2	£250.00	7.50

Now that we’ve got that game out the way and the transfer window is firmly shut, my money is on the Celtic to win this league comfortably.

A bet of 10 grand returns £3,333,  tax-free,   better than money in the bank with low risk.

Are you uncertain or uncomfortable about that?   Then give it a little time for the odds to go more in Celtics favour,  your returns will be reduced but your risk will be lowered.

I’m not really a gambling man,  I don’t bet money every week hoping it wins,  not even just for fun,  a few quid here and there doesn’t matter to me.

But I do like to assess risk and reward and a one-off £10k bet paying £3.33k return is a completely different matter.

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As a final note,  credit where credit is due to the board for splashing the cash on some decent signings.    My remaining criticism is that we should have did that sooner,  had the team gelled and we would now be in the Champions League group statges rather than the lesser Europa League.

This failure to invest in a timely manner happens most seasons and far too frequently for my liking,  indicating an underlying issue which needs rectified,  whether that be in the identification and recruitment of candidates,  negotiating deals or deciding that the team needs support and investing the money sitting in the bank to improve the team.

 

 

 

 

Will Celtic Win The League?

Will Celtic Win The League?

Celtic have won 8 domestic championships in a row,   a fantastic achievement,  but we’ve been here before many years ago when we won 9 championships back  from the season beginning in 1965 and that ending in 1974.

Our greatest historic rival Rangers were close in some of those years, closest in season 1972-3 where they lost the league by a single point.

But of course,   that was then when the league had teams like East Fife who have faded or even Rangers who went into administration in 2012 and are currently in the liquidation process.

New Rangers .. Yes the company is the club ..  started in the 4^th division of Scottish football and have made their way slowly back to the top division,  stumbling to gain access to the premier league after being humbled 6-1 by Motherwell in the play-offs over 2 games.

How we laughed .. at their pain .. of course we did .. that’s what rivals do in any context.

It’s their superiority complex,  their hubris and expectation that they will succeed that makes them vulnerable .. then seeing them fail.

Beating the part-timers of the lower leagues was easy with their superior resources and full-time professional players against guys who were working part-time in other jobs to earn a living.

Rangers reached the premiership in season 2016-7 were they finished 3^rd  behind second place Aberdeen by 9 points and huge 39 points being champions Celtic who finished with a massive 106 points and not losing a game in their incredible “invincibles” season.

Before that season started,   I blogged about it,   their expectation was high but there was no contest.    The bookies knew it.  I knew it.  Anyone with half a brain and not wearing blue-tinted  spectacles knew it.

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2016/08/01/money-in-the-bank/

However .. and I hate to say it .. I hate to have any association with that “Rangers Are Coming” strap-line that their poisonous club are using to get their fans on side and sell season tickets.

But the reality is Rangers have spent massively over the past few seasons and have improved winning 67,70 and 78 in the past 3 seasons.

In that same time,   Celtic have lost momentum and dropped from their highest point of 106 points to a meagre 82 and a slight improvement to 87.   But don’t let that fool you,   many of last seasons performances were dire lack-lustre games both with Brendan Rodgers and Neil Lennon as a manager including getting beat at Ibrox by Rangers on 2 occasions.

Season	Winner	Points	Second	Points	Third	Points
2016-7	Celtic	106	Aberdeen	76	Rangers	67
2017-8	Celtic	82	Aberdeen	73	Rangers	70
2018-9	Celtic	87	Rangers	78	Kilmarnock	67

Anyone who thinks that Rangers are not  making a serious attempt to provide a challenge and win the league is deluding themselves.    In my opinion Rangers are spending money they don’t have and will throw all resources they have at stopping Celtic winning the league 9 times in a row this season.

But are they good enough?     

This is Not the Champions League. #UEFA

Celtic are back in action tonight,  the second-leg of the first of four qualifying rounds to get to the UEFA Champions’ League Group Stages.

We are already 3-0 up from the first leg against Alashkert of Armenia and tonight should be a formality.

How skewed are UEFA in the decision making of their qualifying process that whoever wins between Scotland and Armenia’s champions are playing 8 games to qualify in the group stages when there are 26 direct entries to the group stages including 4 from England, 4 from Spain and 4 from Italy,  3 from Germany and 3 from France.

This is not a whinge saying that the above is not fair.    If that’s how UEFA want to play the game then that’s up to them.

What am I saying is that this is no longer the “Champions” league and should be renamed accordingly.

Tonight,  the walk from Dalmarnock train station along the wide thoroughfare of the Clyde Gateway with the stadium looking magnificent in the distance always brings pride in my heart and a smile on my face.

Mon the hoops.

The First To Say Good-Bye?

 

The First To Say Good-Bye?

Well she actually said,  “Fuck Off”   .. delightful I’m sure!   🙂

It’s not that I haven’t said the same thing to her before,  because I have,  even although I didn’t mean it.

It was more a “Seriously?”  than a “Get out of here”.

Where as hers was more a ” Get out of here asap and never come back”  🙂

But the big difference is,  somewhere inside,  this time I knew she meant it.

This time I thought,  you really are pissed off with me.

What is it that I do to make piss her off so much?

How can I simply be out with friends and family enjoying the day,  then get a rattling angry text from her.

Truth is,  I was enjoying spending time with my closest brother before he goes through a major operation,  enjoying the football,   the sunshine and his last few days of freedom before going under the knife with life changing results and I don’t even want to think about the worst case scenario.

So we got caught up,  I hadn’t contacted her until 8:30,  but it was only 8:30 for fucks sake,  hardly the end of the night.

Yeah,  maybe I should have contacted her earlier to finalise arrangements,  let her plan ahead,   I get that,  but it takes 2 to tango,  does it not?

So what next?

Let it go?

Apologise?

Look for some middle-ground between eating humble pie and maintaining a huff.

You know I miss her,  she knows I miss her,   I know that she’s hurting,   probably waiting on a call  ..  or maybe not.

Here’s the truth,   good-bye isn’t always a one-sided decision and fuck off isn’t always the end.

We’ve came this far and its a lot to throw away for trivial reasons.

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Anyway,   my closest brother is genuinely under the knife today,    they found a 4cm long tumour in one of his kidneys and are removing the kidney completely.

Only this time last week, we met for a curry and some beers before going to see Bryan Ferry at The Royal concert Hall in Glasgow.     He’d only just heard the bad news.

He’s a different kind of character to me,  he’s  more “get it done” where I’d be worried sick.

But you’ve really got to love the NHS for taking care of business so quickly.

So it might not be perfect,  budgets are limited,  but when you need it,  it’s there.

Last night,  I went over to see him ..  strange thing ..  I don’t see him every week,    we aren’t in constant contact,    but he’s my oldest friend,  a close confidante,  I just can’t imagine him not being around.

Right now,   waiting on the news from the hospital,  it’s a strange situation,  a pregnant pause,  when life is out of your hands,  big things are happening and there’s absolutely nothing you can do about them.

I’m not really religious,  but I will admit to having said a silent prayer.

I never ever want to say goodbye.

Treble Treble then 10 in a Row.

I’m a Celtic fan, It’s part of who I am. I can’t remember being anything else.

Even in those dark days of divorce, I’d find myself at Celtic Park surrounded by fellow fans and thinking no matter how bad things get, I’ll always have this and at least I’ll never be a hun. 🙂

Celtic has been not only part of my life but also my sons. In those dark days it was the glue that bonded us bhoys together. Him aged 5 sitting on my knee eating pizza, the seat beside us empty. The guys around us patting his head and giving him sweets.

20 odd years later, we’re still in the same seats in the Jock Stein Stand with the same guys sitting around us.

Part of my legacy with my Bhoy is that I’ll pay the season tickets until I’m not working then he’ll take the mantle and hopefully grandkids will fill that empty seat.

Today Celtic play Hibs at Easter road with a beam back to the Kerrydale suite at Celtic Park. A few of our fellow fans are meeting for a beer and to watch the game together.

It’ll be a bit different to talking to the backs of their heads.

If we win then that’s the league wrapped up for the seventh year in a row and a win against Motherwell at Hampden in May and that’s a historic second Treble in a row.

Would you bet against it?

I wouldn’t.

If you’ve read any of my nonsense, you’ll know I like an occasional flutter, but only really like to bet certainties and put enough on that the return is worthwhile.

Earlier in the week I contacted Ladbrokes for the odds of Celtic winning 10 league titles in a row.

As you can see from the response above it’s not a risk they are willing to take. I.e In their opinion Celtic will go on to win the 10 titles in a row.

Got to agree with them.

Enjoy your day, these are the good days. These are days to celebrate and remember.

Celtic vs Rangers Perspective.

I regularly put on a post with odds before the Glasgow Derby of Celtic vs Rangers.

It’s by far the biggest rivalry in Scotland, the UK and certainly one of the most fiercestly contested derby matches in the world.

It’s more than simple rivalry, there’s cultural history involved where most people would presume that all Celtic fans are Catholic with an Irish heritage and all Rangers fans are Protestant with loyalty to the UK.

It’s a generalisation but it’s not as simple as that.

Torn – Is Glasgow a Binary City?

 

He’s not a happy man, John that I work with.

I wonder why?

On Friday he seemed to be buoyant, looking forward to the weekend. A quiet night on Friday as he had a flying lesson on Saturday and was saving himself for a big day out at the football and celebrating on Sunday.

John’s a Rangers fan, or a Sevco fan if you like to wind him up about the fact that his original team have went into liquidation and the team in blue that play out of Ibrox are not the same team that he has supported man and boy.

On Friday, he had a spring in his step, lunch time was full of phrases like “We’re back” and “This is the most I’ve looked forward to an Old Firm game in years”.

John’s attitude, probably like most who see the world through blue-tinted glasses is that Celtic haven’t been performing at their best ( true) and that Rangers have had better recent performances ( possibly) and that over the 8 games since Christmas Rangers were the form team and had beaten St Johnstone 3-0 where Celtic could only draw 0-0 against them.

He was in full-on mode .. upbeat, confident and on a roll.

Truth be told, I was more nervous about this game than I have been for any game against Rangers since they were reformed from the assets that Charles Green bought from the insolvency administrators.

Would they be able to beat us at their ground with 45,000 home supporters baying for “Fenian blood”?

My heart said no, but my head wasn’t as confident with a 60/40 likelihood that Celtic would win. Much less than previous games were I had no doubt that we would win, or at least not get beat.

Is that the same thing?

I can handle a draw. But getting beat by your biggest rivals stings.

Glasgow isn’t exactly a binary city,  it’s more 1’s, 0s and Nulls.

For many people,   you’re a Tim or a Hun or nothing and if you’re nothing then you’re viewed suspiciously by either side and assumptions are made from your upbringing and attitude to put you in one box or the other.

So you might as well be something.

But in reality its not as simple as that.  there are many people who really could not give a toss about football or religion and wish that the lot of them would pack up and go elsewhere.

Add to that,  the growing number of immigrants to the city who do not have the historic loyalties which cause this unholy rivalry to be the car-crash spectacle that it has become.

Some people are too involved,  too close to it,  that they lose all sense of perspective.  That they think that its all about “us” and “them”.   Completely unaware that there is so much more to life out there and lots of people who don’t give a fuck.

Did you see the game?

It’s tighter but the moneys still safe! #CelticFC

 

Oh the weather outside is frightful …

Well it certainly is in the Central Scotland area,  where the “Beast From The East”  is laying siege to most of the country including my wee street,   which being half-way up the hill to East Kilbride is a certainty to be snowed in when the weather turns nasty.

The best thing about being snowed in is no travelling to work,   I’m self employed but I get to Work From Home .. a loose term for logging in and being available and doing enough to look as if you’re busy but in reality I’m sitting around playing piano,  watching  tv,  making curries and otherwise keeping my hands and mind occupied.

Idle hands .. Its the devils work!     🙂

Anyway,  since I’m not spending 3 hours a day on my commute to that Global Communications Company in Livingston that currently employs my services ,   I’ve been able to drop a few thoughts on the blog.

What about the Rangers eh?

Now second in the SPFL and a mere 6 points behind Celtic,  who have a game in hand and there are 10/9 games to play for Celtic/Rangers respectively.

It’s closer than I expected,   but not close enough.

Lets be fair,    they have been playing better football since the got shot of Pedro.   The caretaker manager Graham Murdy is a straight-talking honest professional and has made a few decent loan deals.

The Rebels Have Won … The #SPFL Is Dead.

The SPFL premiership started a few weeks ago and Celtic are already on top on goal difference from St Johnstone and Aberdeen. 

In the same period, our closest perceived rivals Rangers have lost more points than they have won gaining a poor 4 from 9. 

Last weekend with last nights Champions League match pending,  Celtic played a largely second string set of players and still comfortably overcame Kilmarnock by two goals. 

Does anyone doubt that this Celtic juggernaut will continue?

The bookmakers certainly don’t and have reduced their odds on Celtic winning the league accordingly with best odds dropping from 1/8 on to 1/33 on.    In percentage terms,  a poor 12.5% return has now dropped to meagre 3.33% return and not worth the money. 

Essentially,  the bookmakers are saying that it’s all over already. 

What is worth noting in the numbers that Aberdeen are now second favourites,  with Rangers best return increasing to 25/1 from 20/1 before the league started. 

To put things in perspective,   I’m a Celtic fan,  I love my club for more than football,  it’s not about 22 men chasing a ball round a park,  it’s bigger than that.  

It’s about rivalry,   about historic repression, being the underdog, standing up to bigotry and not letting the establishment club or its supporters regard us as second class citizens. 

Football is just the medium in which that message is expressed.    
And bhoy have we expressed it. 

Celtic are better run, better managed, more financially astute and generate much more revenue than any other team in Scotland. 

But let’s not be arrogant,  it’s not our way.    20 years ago that arrogance eminated from the other side of Glasgow.   They thought they were untouchable,  they spoke of floating pitches, world class hotels and casino complexes. 

It was all moonbeams. 

They reality was that they refused to pay their social taxes and look where they are now,  in a box in a liquidators office going through the process of stripping the last flesh from their rotting carcass. 
It’s quite sad really. 

Even worse is that the new entity which purchased those assets are a shadow of the former club. 

My Rangers supporting friends don’t care about administration, liquidation, assets etc.   They just want to put their fingers in their ears and support the team in blue that plays out of Ibrox.   

I get that,  they want the joy,  they pay their season ticket and support their team.  

But they don’t  want to think about finances, management or governance.  That’s someone else’s responsibility. 

That attitude is why their club was liquidated and why they are in their current predicament. 

Meanwhile,  I miss them,  I don’t miss their songs of hatred,  but I miss a genuine rivalry.   I miss the banter with my mates and the excitement of playing our closest rivals knowing that we could lose. 

Actually I don’t miss them,  it’s the genuine challenge that I miss. 

Sport is meant to be competitive and winning the SPFL without it is pretty dull and not good for Celtic or the other clubs who are more restricted financially. 

Do I have a solution?

Not really,   Celtic is a big club in a small pond but we can only play what’s in front of us.   

The EPL would provide a challenge but they don’t want us. 

The Champions League provides our only real challenge and we look like plucky minnows compared with other giant clubs with huge tv revenues. 

Thankfully we made the group stages again this year,  generating an additional £35 million in revenue and increasing the gulf between Celtic and the other Scottish clubs. 

That gulf is only going to keep getting bigger and the following thought occurred to me. 

Back in March 1994 when Fergus McCann, John Keane and others saved the club from being foreclosed by the Bank Of Scotland,  Brian Dempsey famously stood on the steps at Celtic Park and proclaimed that “The Rebels had won”. 
The rebels have won,  but at what cost when you’ve outgrown all other clubs and killed the SPFL as a competition. 

For Celtic and for the good of Scottish Football we need to find a different challenge. 
Original Stats 

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/more-free-money-celticfc/

Current betting

More free money? #CelticFC

It’s almost time for the Scottish Premier Football League to kickoff for season 2017/18. 

This Saturday last seasons league winner flag will be unfurled and currently managerless Hearts will visit Celtic Park for their regular hiding.     

Or will they?

Is there any foregone conclusion to be made when 22 grown men don shorts and chase a ball around a football field in what passes as sport in this little corner of the globe?

Let’s keep it in perspective.   Anything can happen in an individual game,  the plucky challengers might get lucky.     But winning the league is a marathon not a sprint and class and more importantly budget counts. 

Take a look at the numbers above which give a clear indication that the bookmakers are backing Celtic to win the league at a canter with odds ranging from 1/8 against to 1/20 against.  Which to us non gamblers means a return between 5-12.5% dependent upon which institution you let borrow your money. 

Compare and contrast with the nearest challengers and predicted runners-up Rangers,  aka Sevco,  with returns of 700-1200%. 

Basically the bookies are saying that it’s a foregone conclusion. 

But here’s a few interesting observations. 

Rangers were not Celtics closest challengers last season they finished third and an extremely poor 39 points equivalent to 13 wins behind Celtic.   The nearest rivals were in fact Aberdeen who finished a pish-poor 30 points behind Celtic. 

So why do the bookies seem determined that Rangers are Celtucs closest challengers?

Is it because Sevco strengthened their team?

What with a cowboy manager and a bunch of unknown journeymen and the addition of headline signing Bruno Alves who at 37 is well past his best.    

Is that it?    Is that the best they can come up with?

Reminder – the bookies aren’t often wrong and perhaps this “strengthening” will allow Sevco to claim second place but they will only ever be runners-up. 

Would you like more evidence in support of that conclusion?

This time last year,  I had a looks at oddschecker.com where the bookmakers had Celtic at 1/3 on to win the league and The Rangers at 7/2. 

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2016/08/01/money-in-the-bank/

So, despite our closest rivals strengthening and Celtic not adding any headline players, which I think they should in preparation for the Champions League campaign. The bookmakers have cut the odds on Celtic to win the league by a two thirds and increased the odds of Sevco by an equivalent amount. 

It’s a foregone conclusion.  A certainty if you believe the bookies. 

But would you bet on it?

At best odds of 1/8 against returns 12.5%.   A £1000 stake returns a meagre £125,   

Personally I wouldn’t be bothered with earning £125 over a year.    But a  A £10,000 stake returns a healthier £1250.   

It’s a risk like any bet.     But still better than money in the bank which is earns nothing and in real world terms is deteriorating. 

Not as good as last years return of 33%,  which for my “investment” of £10,000 returned enough for me and my grown up kids to look forward to our free holiday in a few weeks time. 

Cheers Bet365.