More free money? #CelticFC


It’s almost time for the Scottish Premier Football League to kickoff for season 2017/18. 

This Saturday last seasons league winner flag will be unfurled and currently managerless Hearts will visit Celtic Park for their regular hiding.     

Or will they?

Is there any foregone conclusion to be made when 22 grown men don shorts and chase a ball around a football field in what passes as sport in this little corner of the globe?

Let’s keep it in perspective.   Anything can happen in an individual game,  the plucky challengers might get lucky.     But winning the league is a marathon not a sprint and class and more importantly budget counts. 

Take a look at the numbers above which give a clear indication that the bookmakers are backing Celtic to win the league at a canter with odds ranging from 1/8 against to 1/20 against.  Which to us non gamblers means a return between 5-12.5% dependent upon which institution you let borrow your money. 

Compare and contrast with the nearest challengers and predicted runners-up Rangers,  aka Sevco,  with returns of 700-1200%. 

Basically the bookies are saying that it’s a foregone conclusion. 

But here’s a few interesting observations. 

Rangers were not Celtics closest challengers last season they finished third and an extremely poor 39 points equivalent to 13 wins behind Celtic.   The nearest rivals were in fact Aberdeen who finished a pish-poor 30 points behind Celtic. 

So why do the bookies seem determined that Rangers are Celtucs closest challengers?

Is it because Sevco strengthened their team?

What with a cowboy manager and a bunch of unknown journeymen and the addition of headline signing Bruno Alves who at 37 is well past his best.    

Is that it?    Is that the best they can come up with?

Reminder – the bookies aren’t often wrong and perhaps this “strengthening” will allow Sevco to claim second place but they will only ever be runners-up. 

Would you like more evidence in support of that conclusion?

This time last year,  I had a looks at oddschecker.com where the bookmakers had Celtic at 1/3 on to win the league and The Rangers at 7/2. 

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2016/08/01/money-in-the-bank/

So, despite our closest rivals strengthening and Celtic not adding any headline players, which I think they should in preparation for the Champions League campaign. The bookmakers have cut the odds on Celtic to win the league by a two thirds and increased the odds of Sevco by an equivalent amount. 

It’s a foregone conclusion.  A certainty if you believe the bookies. 

But would you bet on it?

At best odds of 1/8 against returns 12.5%.   A £1000 stake returns a meagre £125,   

Personally I wouldn’t be bothered with earning £125 over a year.    But a  A £10,000 stake returns a healthier £1250.   

It’s a risk like any bet.     But still better than money in the bank which is earns nothing and in real world terms is deteriorating. 

Not as good as last years return of 33%,  which for my “investment” of £10,000 returned enough for me and my grown up kids to look forward to our free holiday in a few weeks time. 

Cheers Bet365. 

We Hate Catholics?


Did you see the fitba last week?

What a doing that was .. 5-1 to the famous Glasgow Celtic over that team in blue that play out of Ibrox.   

A complete humiliation and even better that it was at their own stadium in front of 48000 home fans. Many of whom had left with 25 minutes to go. 

Nothing like supporting your team! 🙂

Actually nothing like supporting your team, These people aren’t football fans. They are an outdated sectarian underclass who gather to sing their songs of hatred and bigotry with impunity. 

Their latest charming ditty “We hate Catholics” passes without comment in the compliant Scottish media indicating where their loyalties lie. 

Imagine swapping Catholics for Jews or Moslems and there would be an outcry in the presss. 

They are indeed a stupid, contemptible group of Neanderthals. 

But worse ….  as the Rangers quarters of the stadium emptied while the game was still in play and the Celtic fans were in full voice joyfully singing about winning 10 leagues in a row,   This poor kid above was standing dejected with his fingers in his ears. 

I’m sure he’s a lovely boy,  he reminds me of my own son when I started taking him to see the Celtic  20 years ago.  

He is the future of the Rangers support and more than likely follows the team that his dad and grandfather supported. 

I wonder if he had his fingers in his ears while his own support were singing “We hate Catholics” or did he gleefully join in?

That kid is their future and he has a choice between right and wrong,  football songs or religious bigotry.  

If he was my son,  I wouldn’t expose him to such bile.   It’s a game if football for heavens sake and the team in green has never cared about anyone’s religious allegiances so singing about Catholics is not about Celtic,  but rather about the Rangers supports twisted hateful mind-set. 

But I fear that the kid probably doesn’t even understand the significance of their hatred and joins in because that’s what he’s learned at home where there has been generations of religious intolerance. 

Poor kid,  born into hatred,  I can only hope he sees how unacceptable it is. 

For the record,  I’m a well lapsed Catholic.  Many of my friends are Rangers fans  but I’ve lost a few over the years when they’ve made derogatory remarks about Catholics, Taigs or Fenians. 

It’s the equivalent of calling a black guy a Nigger,   Completely unacceptable. 

Celtic v Rangers 12 March 2017 – Safe Bet?


At noon today Celtic play newco Rangers at Celtic Park.  

This will be the fourth time the clubs have met this season and the third in the league 

Previous results are 5-1, 0-1, 1-2 with Celtic winning on each occasion. 

Looking at the results above it would appear that after the early “doing” the games were evenly matched with Celtic having narrow victories by single goals. 

That wasn’t the case.  In fact,  although the later results were closer,  Celtic were in control on each occasion and didn’t look like losing. 

The odds offered on today’s game  by the various bookmakers reflect that gulf in class between both teams with best odds of 4/11 Celtic win and 10/1 Rangers win. 

These pay winnings £36 and £1000 respectively on a £100 stake. 

A win ratio of 1000/36 = 28,  i.e. The bookmakers believe that it’s 28 times more likely that Celtic will win than Rangers. 

On today’s offerings and current form, Celtic look like a dead cert winner. 

However,  games aren’t played on paper and there is always a risk,  particularly as today’s referee is Bobby Madden who is a Rangers supporter and former season book holder at Ibrox. 

Not that I’d accuse anyone of being unprofessional in their decision making process.  

But if my house was on fire and I could save either my child or yours,  you’re going to receive some really sad news.  

I’ll be gutted for you,  but that’s the reality of the situation in the heat of the moment and faced with a 50/50 decision any indivudual is more likely to be predisposed to an outcome which favours their fundamental loyalties. 

I personally think that any referee with any leanings to any team should be prevented from refereeing games involving that team. 

I’m not a betting man,  I rarely bet and I don’t throw money away.   Random betting is for mugs,  or a bit of fun,  depending on how serious you take it. 

But money in the bank earns nothing and I have a significant bet placed already on Celtic winning the league. 

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2016/08/01/money-in-the-bank/

That’s a professional bet made as I considered it zero risk.    I’ll make the same bet next season as it will pay for a great holiday for the family. 

Theres a huge difference between betting on the league over the season and an individual game.  Over the season,  individual losses become insignificant and class counts. 

In contrast,  today’s bet,  a grand to make it interesting is just a bit of fun and pays winnings of £360. 

Now here’s a thought . Would it be worth also putting a ton, £100,  on Rangers paying a £1000 to mitigate the loss of the primary bet?

Sensibly yes.  These games rarely end in draws. 

But I can only see a Celtic win and I’d never ever ever bet against my team. 

Enjoy the game. 

Prediction – Celtic to win 4-1,  or 2-1 if we lose a man through some dodgy decision. 

Mon the Hoops!

The Games a Bogey! #CelticFC

img_7731

A few months ago,  before this years Scottish Premier Football League started,  I blogged that Celtic were a sure thing to win the league and were worth investing in as at a win-ratio of 33% after tax were much better than money in the bank at 2%.before tax.

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2016/08/01/money-in-the-bank/

At that time,  the odds were 1 to 3 on .. ie put on £1000 and it gets you £333.

Our apparent nearest rival newco Rangers,  were best priced at 7/2.

A relative ten-fold difference and an indication of who the bookies thought would win the league even before a ball was kicked. Continue reading “The Games a Bogey! #CelticFC”

I Don’t Hate Rangers?

Welcome

I don’t hate Rangers
I don’t hate Rangers
I want to shoo-oooo-oot
The new club down.

Where do you stand on the oldco / newco Rangers debate?

There is no debate .. the old club/company are in liquidation .. FACT.

http://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/why-were-not-playing-rangers/

The new club joined the 4th tier of Scottish football and have been grinding their way back to the top league, with an unexpected stumble last year when the new club ran second to Hearts in the championship and the new club failed to beat Motherwell in the SPFL play-offs.

And how we laughed!

Now the new club are in the SPFL and face Celtic on Saturday for the first time in league football.

The last outing in the Scottish Cup where the new club beat Celtic after extra time and penalties was mighty embarrassing for the hoops and the death knell for Ronnie Delia.

I watched the game with a bunch of Rangers supporting mates in The Kames Hotel near Tighnabruigh .. it was an exciting game and Celtic were beat fair and square.

In contrast to what is often portrayed by the media as hatred between Celtic and Rangers fans ( old or new ) , the atmosphere in the pub was friendly.

When Rangers scored first and a loud cheer went up, my mate Jim said to me that I was in the wrong pub.

But when Celtic scored .. it was clear that he had mis-judged the crowd and there were more of us than them .. even although I was the only Tim in my company of 12 guys + 6 kids.

Well me and one of the kids .. clearly the most intelligent one!  🙂

No point in going into all the details of the game, but when it was over there were handshakes all round and big smiles on the faces of my mates .. they knew they’d got away with it, due a poor Celtic performance on the field and by the management.

But things have changed since then .. Continue reading “I Don’t Hate Rangers?”

Celtic to Win the SPFL? – The Money’s Safe!

Bettnig Graph

Comparative returns on £1 bet on Celtic or newco-Rangers as league progressed

A couple of weeks ago, I blogged about the probability of Celtic win this years SPFL title and compared the numbers from the various book-makers against their nearest contenders newco Rangers.

https://dancingbhoy.wordpress.com/2016/08/01/money-in-the-bank/

At the point before the League commenced, Celtic were odds on favourites at 1/3 and The Rangers at 7/2.

A 10k bet on Celtic would pay approx 3.5k, where a 10k bet on The Rangers returns 35k .. ie a ten-fold ratio of returns and Celtic look a pretty safe bet.

What I like about bookies is the numbers don’t lie .. any arse can talk crap all day about the likelihood of who s going to win .. but bookies put their money on the line and reflect reality rather than pointless emotionally based rhetoric of idiots in the pub.

Continue reading “Celtic to Win the SPFL? – The Money’s Safe!”

Money In The Bank?

Welcome

I’m not a betting man,    well not in the context of taking it seriously,   I work hard for my cash and don’t go throwing it away on frivilous things  … well except concerts, football, alcohol and a significant collection of designer shirts!

Here’s the thing,   in the current economic climate, money in the bank earns nothing.

According to Martin Lewis’s money saving experts site,   the best currently available savings rate is 3% on a Santander account for savings up to £20,000.

But as always theres a catch .. the interest is only payable on amounts up to 20k,   after that you get nothng extra and possibly worse is that the interest is paid tax free and you have to pay the tax on it yourself.

Which as a higher rate tax payer cuts any interest in half knocking the rate to 1.5%.or £300pa on 20k locked away.

Whats the point in locking that amount of money down for £300pa?

Personally that does nothing for me and I’d rather spend the money on alcohol,  concerts, football and having a ball .. life is short and for living,  not worrying about money.

With that lack of return in mind for having your money sitting wasting in a savings account would you be prepared to risk a serious lump of money on a gamling bet if you reckoned it was a “sure thing”? Continue reading “Money In The Bank?”