A couple of weeks ago, I blogged about the probability of Celtic win this years SPFL title and compared the numbers from the various book-makers against their nearest contenders newco Rangers.
At the point before the League commenced, Celtic were odds on favourites at 1/3 and The Rangers at 7/2.
A 10k bet on Celtic would pay approx 3.5k, where a 10k bet on The Rangers returns 35k .. ie a ten-fold ratio of returns and Celtic look a pretty safe bet.
What I like about bookies is the numbers don’t lie .. any arse can talk crap all day about the likelihood of who s going to win .. but bookies put their money on the line and reflect reality rather than pointless emotionally based rhetoric of idiots in the pub.
I’m not a betting man, I don’t take unnecessary chances with my hard-earned dosh, but I’m not averse to a little risk when the benefits are high.
A 33% tax-free return on 10k over the 9 months of the league to me is much better than tying 10k up on a savings account paying 2.5%pa at best savings rate and this is taxable, reducing the interest significantly.
With my 10k bet placed, I’ve been monitoring the progress and checking the odds before and after every game.
After the latest set of results last week, the odds on Celtic winning the league have shortened from 1/3 to 9/2 paying £2222 on the 10k “investment” .. Whereas the odds on The Rangers winning the league have lengthened from 7/2 to 5/1 with a 10k bet now paying winnings of 50k.
But there is no point in placing that bet when it isn’t going to happen.
Comparatively the likelihood of Celtic winning the league than The Rangers has increased from 10 to 22 times more likely.
The graph above is a comparison of odds since the league started showing how the difference in return has changed as each of the events below occurred demonstrating each teams abilities.
Looks like my money safe.
I’m really looking forward to this weekends Glasgow Derby, Celtic at home, big atmosphere, the first time we have played newco-Rangers in the league and looking forward to putting the upstarts in their place.
We are already one point ahead with a game in hand, a stronger team with a more experienced manager.
There is only going to be one winner and the bookies agree with that with Celtic at 4/5 to win and the newco at 9/2 .. a comparison of 5.625 times Celtic more likely to win.
The only thing that I’m not looking forward to about this weekends game is the violence after the match. This usually occurs away from the stadium and there’s statistically an increased amount of incidents after the team in blue lose.
It’s completely up to you .. but if you have spare cash sitting in the bank doing nothing .. stick it on the hoops to win the SPFL and do it before the weekends game when after Celtic win the odds will be significantly shortened.
It’s still paying 22% tax-free and redeemable in 8 months.
Much better than money in the bank.