Sons, Irn-Bru And Flu Forecasting!

What do you know about Holt Winters Demand Forecasting?

It’s a sophisticated method of forecasting based on past results and utilises expnential smoothing to predict future demand.

The clever part of this is that, as time goes on and more actual resutls are available, the calculated smoothing parameters alter to predict future forecasting even more accurately.

Sound complicated?

Have a read ….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing

Could you build that model in excel?

Then use VBA, Visual Basic For Applications to modify the model for future demand as it becomes available graphing as necessary?

Nope?

Neither could I … but I have now!!

That boy of mine is a complete nightmare .. 24 years of age and pours a full glass of Irn-Bru down his laptop .. what a complete dope!!

He’s freaking .. he’s lost the work he’s done, plus he had an exam last Thursday and another coursework to be completed on Friday, then this one to be done for midnight last night and he’s not thad the time to do it.

The thing is, his first degree is in Cell Biology, he’s not got the math or computing experience of most of the other people on this Masters Degree in Business Analysis and Operational Research.

He says that the only VBA he got in class was 2 hours worth and then told to read the online examples.

The boy looks stressed out of his tits, the clocks ticking and he neither has the tools or the exoperience to get the job done in time.

So what do you do?

Me .. I left him to it .. not my problem!

You know thats not true, I gave him my laptop, he build the forecast model and we spent the weekend manipulating it for future models and writing the VBA.

Job done, he’s delighted .. and I’m glad to have helped him out and overcome the challenge.

The university have arranged a work placement for him with the NHS which he started yeterday. They asked for him specifically because of his first degree in Cell Biology.

They want him to build a model for predicting future take up of the Flu Vaccine and to investigate the reasons why its not been taken up as often as they expected .. apparently the take up is less than 50% for the eligible groups.

He’s a clever boy and I’m sure the weekends work will have helped him out significantly.

He looked very handsome today leaving for work with his suit and tie and I’m a proud dad.

I just hope that they don’t let him drink Irn-Bru anywhere near their PC’s

Love their ads .. some of the most original, creative and outrageous on tv.

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